Category Archives: PLS 470-B01

PLS 470-B01

Missed class: Notes

political timeline

  • july 2003 IQ governing council
  • june 2004 IQ Interim Govt
  • Jan 2005 Elections
  • March 2005 IQ Transitional Govt
  • Oct 2005 new constitution
  • Dec 2005 new elections
  • Jan 2010 next elections

Election results Dec 2005: major players

  • United Iraqi Alliance (Shia)
  • Kurdish Alliance
  • Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni)
  • Iraqi Front for National Dialogue (ex-Ba’athist)
  • Iraqi National List (Allawi)

govt of national unity: UIA+INL+Kurds+IAF

Problems

  • 2/3 requirement: tough
  • parties cannot agree
  • takes 6 mos to form govt
  • body count keeps rising

Al Qaeda Iraq

  • joins with other Islamist groups
  • forms Islamic state of IQ
  • takes over chunks of Baghdad
  • Anbar
  • Feb 2006: targets al-Askari Mosque

Shia response

  • death squads
  • ethnically cleanse Baghdad
  • most Sunnis driven out
  • IQ on the edge

The Surge

*** Presentation: The Gamble by Thomas Ricks ***

Problems ahead

constitutional “compromise”: ISCI + Kurds

constitution

  • creates a system of federalism
  • power divided between federal govt and regions/governorates
  • regions control oil
  • regions have own armies
  • creates potentially very weak central govt
  • good for Kurds

IQ Constitution Article 119

  • “one or more governorates shall have the right to organize into a region based on a request to be voted on in a referendum…”

who opposes constitution?

  • all Sunni parties
  • al-Sadr
  • al-Maliki
  • all want to rewrite, strengthen power of federal govt
  • Kurds block this until disputed territories resolved

Disputed territories

  • Kirkuk

Kurdish argument

  • Kirkuk historically and geographically Kurdish
  • Kurds would now be majority without Saddam
  • must reverse injustices
  • 10k Dinar Arabs must go
  • Kurds must return
  • vote on Kirkuk’s final status (after majority restored)

resolving status

  • constitution article 140 (oct 2005)
  • 3 stage process
  • “normalization”
  • census
  • referendum by Dec. 2007
  • to resolve ALL “disputed territories”
  • deadline expires
  • Kurds pissed off

who opposes the Kurds on Kirkuk? Everyone

The new Saddam? (al-Maliki)

  • new champion of IQ nationalism
  • wants constitution rewritten
  • strengthen central govt (himself)
  • buys off tribes in south
  • cuts deals with Sunni tribes in north
  • now has own militia (IQ armed forces)
  • uses to eliminate rivals (Shia & Sunni)
  • ran own party for provincial elections (Jan 2009)
  • wins big in south
  • wiped out ISCI
  • has now turned on Kurds

al-Maliki’s new hit squad

  • IQ Special Ops Forces (ISOF)
  • 5000 men
  • answers to al-Maliki personally
  • trained by US special forces
  • “these guys are shit hot. They are just as good as we are. We trained ’em. They are just like us. They use the same weapons. They walk like Americans.”

US Exit

  • SOFA signed under Bush
  • all US combat troops out of cities by June 2009
  • armed “advisors” can stay
  • total withdrawal by Dec 2011
  • unlikely!

problem for US

  • if Kurds fight Arabs, who does US back?
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PLS 470-B01

*** PRESENTATION: FIASCO ***

Crime problem

  • Saddam opened prisons
  • loosed 100k criminals
  • regime collapse
  • power vacuum
  • nothing to fill
  • war plan: skirt urban areas
  • war plan: too few troops
  • US troops cannot provide security

dilemma 1: dealing with looting

  • tolerate
  • deal with it…how?
    • arrest?
    • shoot?
    • “liberators” killing Iraqis
  • good PR!

who provides security?

  • in South, religious parties/militias
  • Sunni center: tribal leaders/Ba’athists
  • North: Kurdish militias
  • militias empowered
  • limited US presence in Sunni triangle
  • allows resistance to organize

dilemma 2: De-Ba’athification

  • need someone to run the country
  • keep Ba’athists in power
  • experience & expertise
  • but then, no regime change
  • initial plan: limited implementation

Plan B

  • all Ba’athists out
  • including teachers
  • security
  • army disbanded
  • created 400k unemployed…
  • …pissed-off Sunnis

CIA report Nov 2003

  • 50k+ insurgents
  • Bush admin estimate: 5k
  • most in Sunni triangle
  • cannot be defeated

who are the insurgents?

  1. ex-Ba’athists
  2. Sunni nationalists
  3. Islamist groups
  4. foreign fighters
  • largest of above: #2
  • alliances of convenience

get tough approach

  • kick ass and take names
  • need info
  • mass roundup of Sunnis
  • Abu Ghraib
  • “Gitmoize” Iraq
  • generated huge resentment
  • effective in short term
  • counter-productive in long term

consequemces

  • horrible PR
  • US moral legitimacy lost

the problem of Fallujah

  • 4 Americans strung up
  • how to respond?
  • initial response: massive force
  • 600-700 Iraqis killed
  • many civilians
  • political disaster
  • reisstance = heroic (as seen in IQ)
  • united Sunni & Shi’a
  • had siege continued, US faced major rebellion

the outcome

  • US  blinks (Bremer’s orders)
  • withdraws from city
  • turns over power to “Fallujah Brigade”
  • led by former Republican Guard members
  • Fallujah beyond control
  • haven for resistance

Sunni triangle

in sum:

  • Sunnis pissed off
  • violent resistance
  • violent response from US

Sunni v. Shi’a, overview

political implications

  • Shi’a clerics descended from Prophet’s bloodline
  • clerics much more powerful
  • Shi’ism is hierarchical
  • clerics issue fatwas,
  • followers obey
  • history of suffering, persecution

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani

  • most revered Shia cleric in the world
  • 11 million+ followers
  • Iranian (Persian)
  • traditionally, a “quietist” (stays out of politics)
  • lives in Najaf
  • most powerful man in IQ

Sistani post-2003

  • (sistani.org)
  • orders Shia not to oppose US
  • demands democracy
  • Shia: 60% population of IQ

Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI)

  • formed Iran 1982
  • from exiled Iraqis
  • to fight against Saddam
  • goal of Islamic state in IQ
  • militia: Badr brigades
  • 10-50k strong
  • trained by Iran
  • ally of US (!!!)
  • now called ISCI

Islamic Dawa

  • formed 1957
  • insurgency v. IQ govt
  • terror attacks on US targets (1983)
  • assassination attempts
  • goal: Islamic state
  • close ties to Iran
  • small militia
  • ally of US
  • current PM: Dawa

secular/middle class Shia

  • where are they?
  • very weak
  • all exiles
  • seen as US stooges
  • Allawi
    • former Baathist
    • former CIO “asset”

al-Sadrs

  • Muhammed Sadiq
  • Muhhamed Baqir
  • Muqtada
    • fills power vacuum
    • Kufa
    • Najaf
    • Sadr City (Baghdad slum)
    • NOT an exile
    • Iraqi nationalist
    • appeals to IQ’s poor Shia
    • rival to ISCI
    • hates USA
    • Mahdi Army: 50k?
    • supporters: 100k+
    • starts uprising across south IQ in Apr 2004

US response

  • smash Mahdi army
  • arrest Sadr (dead or alive)

outcome

  • battles in holy cities
  • Karbala, Najaf
  • heavy casualties for Mahdi Army
  • few US casualties
  • Sadr negotiates his way out
  • becomes a “democrat”
  • very popular
  • US response: counterproductive

Kurds

  • 1991-2003 under US/UK protection
  • allies of US
  • participated in OIF
  • Kurdish troops occupy large part of N Iraq
  • united
  • powerful

the balance

  • Sunnis: angry insurgents
  • reject US presence
  • Shia want democracy
  • Kurds want autonomy/independence

PLS 471-B01

What changes Bush policy?

Bush SOTU Address Jan 2002

  • “Axis of Evil”
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • DPRK
  • what is the connection?
  • support for terrorism
  • WMD
  • target=Iraq

“I’ve made up my mind that Saddam needs to go.” — GWB Apr 4 2002

UN Sideshow

UNSC Res. 1441 Nov 2002

  • Iraq must accept inspectors (UNMOVIC)
  • any material breach = “serious consequences”
  • who decides?
  • last chance for Saddam?

The case against Iraq

  • Saddam: bad guy
  • terrorist links
  • WMD
  • = 9-11 squared

on the eve of war, 50%+ of Americans believed Saddam was involved in 9-11

the WMD question: why important?

  • justification given to the world
  • heart of the case for war
  • Iraq seen as threat to US
  • imminent threat
  • cannot be delayed
  • justified pre-emptive strike
  • “mushroom cloud” image
  • so where are they??

Did the Bush administration lie, or was it an honest mistake?

case for the defense

  • why lie?
  • will be found out
  • info from defectors
  • supplied by Ahmed Chalabi
  • administration conned

case for the prosecution

probably

  • Bush admin wanted war
  • WMD=threat
  • easy to understand
  • easiest case to make
  • case not “fair and balanced”
  • presented one side
  • careful not to lie
  • all administrations do this!

Where were democrats?

the deeper reason

why does the Arab world “hate” the US

  • support for IL
  • sanctions on IQ (1991-2003)
  • US troops on “holy” ground of SA
  • US props up dictators
  • results in 9-11

the plan

  • overthrow Saddam
  • demonstrate US power
  • “shock and awe”
  • warning to other states in region
  • Iraqis would welcome US as “liberators”
  • offer permanent bases
  • shift troops out of SA into IQ
  • west gets oil from IQ
  • can control oil prices
  • use oil money to rebuild
  • democracy
  • democracy in IQ lead to same in IR
  • democracy and prosperity spreads through region
  • happily ever after

plan totally restructring the Middle East: “extending the zone of the democratic peace” NSS 2002

advantages

  • resolves the “paper tiger” problem
  • troops off “holy” ground
  • sanctions on IQ end
  • pressure off IL
  • addresses root causes of terrorism
    • repression
    • poverty

beauty of the plan

  • something for everyone
  • for realists & conservatives
    • remove a threat
    • display of power
    • bases in IQ
    • control of oil
  • for liberals
    • take out a bad guy
    • democracy for Middle East

problems

  • does anyone believe it?
  • can it be done?
  • changes definition of success
  • before, success = disarm IQ & regime change
  • after, success = democratic IQ

Troop numbers

government in exile

  • idea: government of exiles
  • ready to transplant after the war
  • hit the ground running
  • Iraqi face
  • who?
  • Chalabi (head of INC)

the plan

  • fly Chalabi & militia into IQ during war
  • generate uprising among Shi’a
  • join with US
  • overthrow regime
  • Afghanistan: the sequel
  • INC forms core of new govt
  • the Leadership Council

problems

  • created power vacuum in cities
  • no law & order
  • regime disintegrates
  • reaction of Iraqi people?
  • most did not resist
  • did not join in
  • window of opportunity

txt

PLS 470-B01

1991 Gulf War (a messy end)

* Video
o Kurdish rebellion could take the whole country in shape

In the North

* UNSCR 688 (April 1991)
* Condemns “repression of Iraqi population”
* Demands an end
* No enforcement
* US +UK create “safe havens”
* No-fly zone established
* Saddam initiates blockade (October 1991)
* Kurds have their own state!

The Kurds survive

* Protected by US + UK (and France) air power
* + own armed forces(Peshmerga)
* Saddam does not dare to attack
* Supported by aid (via UN)
* 1992 elections held and formed Government
* Kurdish democracy born (north)

The rest of Iraq

* Did not make out so well
* UNSCR 661 (1990)
* Total sanctions against Iraq
* UNSCR 678 (April 1991)
* “the mother of all resolutions”
o Ceasefire terms between UN and Iraq
o Iraq must…
+ Destroy all chem./bio/nuke/weapons/facilities/programs
+ + missile of range >100 miles
+ UNSCOM inspects
+ Compensation to Kuwait
+ Iraq still paying
+ Our tax dollars à going to IraqàKuwait
+ Sanctions stay in place until Iraq is certified WMD-free
o UN =get rid of WMD sanctions go but US and Brits wants the regime out
o The problem
+ UNSCR 687 says
+ Lose WMD=sanctions lifted
+ US saysàregime change =sanctions lifted
+ Why would Saddam disarm?
+ The message was designed to motivate people to overthrow Saddam
+ What he have to gain?
+ Guarantees noncooperation

Family problems: Hussein Kamel

*** ARRIVED LATE, ABOVE NOTES EMAILED ***

Clinton administration policy

  • “Containment”
  • regime change lite
  • CIA coup attempt 1995
  • assassination attempt 1998

UNSCOM Ends

  • spying accusations
  • Saddam boots UNSCOM out
  • Operation Desert Fox (Dec 1998)
  • no inspections post-1998

What do we know for certain?

  • IQ had BC weapons
  • worked on N program
  • systematic program of concealment
  • UNSCOM got 95% of it

Sanctions

  • most severe in history
  • 1990-96
  • almost no $$ into IQ
  • oil smuggling (TR & JO)
  • disaster for people
  • 1991 UN offers “oil for food” deal
  • Saddam refused

UNSCR 986 (Apr 1995)

  • new “oil for food” offer
  • $2 bill. oil exports every 6 mos
  • $$ for essential civilian needs
  • Saddam accepts
  • allows food and some medical goods
  • placed “holds” on “dual-use” goods
    • chlorine
    • pencils

problems w/ oil for food

  • does prevent starvation
  • but regime controlled food distribution
  • big carrot/stick
  • strengthened regime
  • IQ cannot rebuild infrastructure
  • not enough $$
  • materials are dual-use

the effects of sanctions

  • regime stronger
  • US/UK = bad guys
  • UN estimate
    • 1.5 million Iraqis die
    • 500k children
  • propaganda gift to Saddam

Bin laden declared Jihad (1998)

cost of sanctions

  • Iraq’s middle class wiped out
  • infrastructure destroyed
  • US tax $$ now pay
  • hostility toward US & UK
  • hatred of UN

was it worth it?

  • Saddam contained
  • 95% of WMD destroyed
  • terrible cost to IQ
    • we are now paying

Saddam’s survival

  • becomes strategic Muslim
  • talks to god
  • controls food distribution
  • illegal income (smuggling)
  • oil for food
    • TR & JO
  • pays off supporters
  • relies only on family
    • sons Uday & Qusay
  • new institutions

Special Republican Guard

  • formed 1992-3
  • 30k strong
  • to protect against coup by “regular” Republican Guard
  • stationed in Baghdad
  • fiercly loyal
  • recruited from poor areas around Tikrit
  • led by Qusay

Saddam’s Fedayeen (men of sacrifice)

  • formed 1995
  • 30-40k
  • led by Uday
  • militia force
  • used to terrorize streets
  • instant beheadings
  • suicide squadron
  • 4-5k?

Saddam’s Lion Cubs (Ashbal Saddam)

  • formed 1998
  • 18k
  • feeder group for Fedayeen
  • ages 9-18
  • trained in weapons
  • indoctrinated
  • loyalty test

personality cult reaches epic proportions

Music video: Saddam Our Father

Uncle Saddam: the view from IQ 2000

By 2000

  • Saddam secure
  • regime more brutal
  • sanctions hurting people but not regime
  • sanctions regime crumbling
  • US looks weak
  • terrible PR problem
  • good luck George Bush

Bush approach

  • Saddam contained
  • not a threat
  • no nation building
  • 2002 Powell tried “smart sanctions”
  • gets nowhere

had the policy continued

  • sanctions break down
  • Saddam still in power
  • serious resources
  • probably seek WMD
  • Saddam would die
  • then what?

PLS 470-B01

Gulf War II and after

consequences of Gulf War I

  • Iraq comes out with huge army
  • 1million + troops
  • lots of WMD
  • huge debts ($100million +)
  • Saddam claims victory
  • more popular than ever
  • Eyes on Kuwait

Sources of debt

  • Western: $30 billion
  • USSR: $10 billion
  • Saudi & Kuwait: $50 billion
  • used to build army & WMD
  • “keep bellies full”

Mo’ money, mo’ problems

  • need money fast
  • oil infrastructure destroyed
  • million man army to demobilize
  • generals = war heroes
    • possible coup threat

Why Kuwait?

  • historical claim
  • access to Gulf
  • Kuwait naughty/stupid
  • Iraq needed money (oil)
  • oil price $11/bbl (now much higher)
  • Kuwait exceeded OPEC quotas
  • costing Iraq $$$
  • Kuwait pumping oil from shared field
  • US (apparently) gave green light
  • Saddam’s ego & miscalculation
    • “victory” v. Iran
    • personality cult
    • Saddam = savior of Iraq & Arabs
    • invincible?
    • US would not intervene

August 2 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait

US response

  • Bush v. Pentagon
  • 200k US troops to Saudi Arabia
  • Operation Desert Shield
  • 30-nation coalition (incl. France & Arab states)
  • UNSCR authorized “all necessary force” to eject IQ from KU (Nov 29 1990)
  • deadline for withdrawal: Jan 15 1991

Selling the war

The war itself

  • 48 days of bombing
  • dismantled infrastructure
  • destroyed Iraqi army
  • Feb 24, ground war began
    • slaughter
    • Battle of Medina Ridge: 600 Republican Guard vehicles destroyed
    • no US casualties
    • lasted 100 hours
  • ceasefire: March 4

why not destroy Saddam?

  • UNSCR did not authorize
  • coalition would fragment
  • Saddam will fall anyway
  • war had become slaughter of Iraqi conscripts
  • “highway of death”
  • “unchivalrous” (Powell)

what happens after Saddam?

the problem

  • did not destroy Republican Guard
  • ceasefire terms
  • armed helicopters OK
  • Guard & choppers put to good use
    • saved Saddam’s regime

Why no US support for uprising?

consequences

  • 10k+ Shia killed
  • massive Kurdish refugee problem
  • feeling of betrayal
  • problem in 2003
  • conspiracy theory
    • no US interest in removing Saddam

Three Kings movie

  • 3 pages, double-spaced, due next THU
  • “The outcome of the 1991 Gulf War was clearcut in military terms, but ambiguous in political and moral terms. How (and how well) does the file 3 Kings reflect this ambiguity?”

PLS 471-B01

Kurdish elections

Kurdistan Democartic Party

  • Massoud Barzani
  • Nechervan Barzani

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan

  • Jalal Talabani
  • Dr. Barham Saleh

Baath party dominance 1968-1988

Gen. Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr: Prez
Saddam Hussein: VP, internal security

Problems facing Baath

  • controlling military
  • how to coup-proof the regime
  • Kurds
  • Shia

Baath party structure (trans-national)

  • Arab world
  • State level (IQ, SY)
  • provincial level
  • city level
  • military/bureau
  • village/neighborhood

structure provides

  • deep penetration of society
  • eyes and ears everywhere
  • incentive system
  • mass/elite membership
  • maximum: 1/10 of population
  • party loyalty = career advancement
  • disloyalty is major problem
  • discipline

the military

  • purges
  • staff jobs with family members
  • tribe members
  • from around Tikrit

Republican Guard

  • buffer force to protect regime from army
  • stationed around Baghdad
  • staffed by tribe/family
  • well equipped
  • well paid

Kurds

  • civil war since 1961
  • supported by Iran, US, Syria
  • March Manifesto (1970) recognized
    • ethnic status
    • autonomy
    • language
    • share of Kirkuk oil
    • promises of democracy
    • census
    • Kurds stop fighting, end relations with Iran
  • Saddam reneged
  • begins to “Arabize” Kirkuk
  • Kurds back with Iran by 1973
  • fighting resumed
  • Saddam cuts deal with Iran 1975
    • Iran, US break off support for Kurds
    • Saddam crushes revolt

Shia

  • majority population of Iraq
  • Poor
  • Baath: secular
  • threat to religious leaders
  • carrot & stick
    • crush dissent
    • spread the wealth, but not power

what wealth?

  • Saddam nationalized Iraqi oil 1972-73
  • Western companies ejected
  • treaty of friendship with USSR
  • price of oil skyrockets 1973

spreading the wealth

  • highway system
  • irrigation
  • oil pipeline systems
  • rural electrification
  • free tv, fridge, etc

education

  • 84% increase in education budget 1977
  • 60k teachers recruited (13 million population)
  • 1/6 Iraqis involved
  • free education, all levels: 1978
  • compulsory education from ages 6-15
  • 2 million become literate by 1982

women

  • 34% educated in 1970
  • 95% by 1980
  • 46% teachers, 30% MDs, 50% DDS by 1980
  • allowed in army 1977

OTOH

  • free tv’s = easier to spread propaganda
  • universal education = indoctrination
    • especially kids

Baath textbooks

  • writing exercise, verb tense analysis
    • “Jerusalem is always in Mr. Hussein’s sight”
    • “We do out best to serve our country and our people. As our beloved leader, President Saddam Hussein says ‘Serving the Iraqi people is a duty.'”

Youth organizations

  • age 6-10: Pioneers
  • 10-15: Vanguard
  • 15-20: Youth Organization
  • Boy Scouts with AK’s, analogous to Hitler Youth

1979

  • Saddam in total control
  • all enemies eliminated
  • Kurds tamed
  • Shia crushed/bribed
  • Saddam very popular
  • time for al-Bakr to retire?

Iranian Islamic Revolution

  • Khomeini takes over
  • radical Shia theocracy
  • pledge to export revolution
  • calls for overthrow of Saddam
  • pumps money from Iran into Iraq
  • tries to start uprising
  • Iraq invades Sept 1980

Role of the West

  • support for both sides, and neither
  • “too bad both sides can’t lose” Kissinger
  • after 1984 US tilts to Iraq
  • huge arms supplies, WMD materials
  • mainly from Germany, UK, France

consequences of war

  • Iraq ends up with huge army: 1 million+
  • lots of WMD
  • huge debt ($100 million +)
  • Saddam claimed victory
  • Saddam more popular than ever
  • begins to eye Kuwait

PLS 470-B01

Iraq: Historical baggage

  • Sunni: 15-20%
  • Shia: 55-60%
  • Kurds: 15-20%
  • Other: 5% (Turkmen)

Iraq under Ottoman empire

  • 1520BCE onward
  • governed separately
  • 3 provinces(all governed by Sunni)
    • Mosul (north)
    • Baghdad (central)
    • Basra (south)

WWI

  • Britain fighting on 2 fronts
    • western front v. Germany
    • eastern front v. Ottoman empire
  • Arab revolt v. Ottomans
    • led by T.E. Lawrence (Lawrence of Arabia)
      • United Arab tribes
      • guerilla army

How did he unite Arabs?

  • money
  • promise of liberation
  • charisma
  • overacting
  • promise of independent Arab state

Sykes-Picot agreement 1916

  • UK & France
  • carved up Ottoman empire
  • France got Syria, Lebanaon
  • UK got Iraq, Jordan & Palestine
  • kept secret
  • betrayal of Arabs

The problem

  • UK helps unify Arab tribes
  • creates sense of Arab “nation”
  • then denies that nation
  • generated resentment against colonial powers

1920 San Remo conference

  • league of nations
  • dominated by UK & FR (no USA)
  • “mandate” system

1920 Iraq revolt

  • 160k rise up against UK occupation
  • Sunni, Shia unite
  • Kurds not involved
    • rebelled separately
  • UK suppress rebellion, 10k IQ deaths

New Iraqi state

  • Baghdad+
  • Basra
  • joined together in 1921 to create Iraq
  • given a king (Faisal)
  • 96% vote of approval
  • given a new flag

attaching the Kurds

  • treatey of Sevres (1920)
  • between allies & Ottomans
  • envisaged Kurdish state
  • Mosul to be part of this state
    • add Kurds from TR

The problem

  • Ataturk heads Turkish nationalist movement
  • rebelled against Ottoman empire
  • rejected Sevres
  • routed the Greeks
  • reconquers land

treaty of Lausanne

  • recognizes today’s borders
  • Mosul attached to Iraq
  • Iraq = Arab + Kurd
  • no state for the Kurds

Why attach Mosul?

  • what else to do with it?
  • sectarian balance (Kurds are Sunni)
  • divide and rule
  • strategic value

governing Iraq

  • new constitution
  • King Faisal = head of state, has power
  • PM & cabinet
  • “elected” parliament
  • IQ independent 1932

the real power

  • British “advisors”
  • Brit military force (RAF + Assyrians)
  • back up Sunni Arab elite

Problems

  • regime = British puppets
  • rule by Sunni Arab minority
  • Kurds in constant rebellion
  • no real democracy
  • no nat’l identity
  • Iraq is state but not nation

Sunni dominance

  • all monarchs = Sunni
  • from 1921-1958
  • important political leaders
  • 60% were Sunni
  • 25% Shia
  • 15% Kurd (military officers)
  • Sunnis dominate military

Kurdish rebellions

  • 1919
  • 1920’s constant
  • UK chemical weapons
  • 1930-31
  • 1945 (major)
  • 1960’s constant
  • 1970-75 (major)
  • 1980s  (v. Iran)
  • 1991
  • 1995

No real democracy

  • not possible when minority rules majority
  • “managed” democracy to get “right” result
  • same people always in power
  • parties exist
    • cannot win elections

Iraqi Communist Party (ICP)

  • haves v. have nots
  • ICP illegal (cannot work within system)
  • organizes resistance to regime
  • strikes, demonstrations, etc
  • regime crushed these with violence
  • party very popular

What unifies Iraqis?

  • Arab identity (pan-Arabism)
  • Islam?
  • anti-British feeling
  • socialism/communism

But the regime is

  • elitist
  • secular
  • sunni
  • dependent on Brits for power

subsequently

  • Ghazi’s son too young
  • regent appointed
  • Abdul Illah
  • hated by everyone
  • 1953, Faisal II becomes King

The Middle East during 1950’s — rise of Arab nationalism

What fuels Arab nationalism?

  • British betrayal of Arab revolt
  • control over Arab oil
  • creation of Israel
  • exploits of Nasser (EG)

Baath party ideology

  • formed 1947 in Damascus
  • 3 principles
    1. Arab Unity
    2. Liberty from colonialism (and Israel)
    3. Socialism
  • secular
  • branches throughout the Arab world
  • 2 main parties: Syria, Iraq

The first step to unity?

  • United Arab Republic
  • 1958
  • Syria + Egypt
  • Yemen joins
  • lasted until 1961

1958 revolution in IQ

Qassim

  • father, Sunni Arab
  • mother, Shia Kurd
  • should be ideal
  • created Council of Sovereignty
    • 1 Kurd
    • 1 Shia
    • 1 Sunni
  • Qassim was PM and CinC

internal struggle

  • Arif & Baath want to join UAR
  • Qassim & ICP want focus on Iraq
  • assassination attempt 1959 (1st political appearance of Saddam Hussein)
  • Saddam fled to EG
    • got a law degree
  • 1963, Baath leads coup (with military)

Iraq under Baath

  • Baath lasted 9 mos
  • chaos
  • national Guard (militia) established
  • Slaughtered communists (4000)
  • 1963, another coup
  • General Arif leads military coup

Iraq under Arif

  • quells chaos
  • military dictatorship
  • stability
  • bashes Kurds
  • died 1966
  • brother takes over

1968: another coup, Baath back in town

  • Saddam becomes VP and head of internal security

Iraq 1958-1969

  • in chaos
  • 4 coups
  • 10 attempted coups
  • military was power broker
  • Baath party imposes stability

Problems facing Baath

  • controlling military
  • coup-proofing regime
  • Kurds
  • Shia

Rise of Saddam

PLS 470-B01