PLS 487-01


Analysis warpup

  • opportunity analysis- difficult
    • I&W = trap?
  • difficult to do- making intel actionable
    • being actor, not reactor


  • reactions to movies
  • what is it?
  • intel intentionally alter intel to support preferred policy outcomes/priorities
  • policy reaction to intel, depends on whether fits into desired policy outcomes
  • using intel for partisan purposes
    • in or out of power
  • example of pol. intel

alt analysis

  • playing devil’s advocate
  • main priorities of DNI, mandated by IRTPA
  • why alt analysis
    • mirror image, groupthink
  • “The main driver is the concern that analysts can fasten on to one line of analysis, especially for issues that are examind and reexamined over the years, and then will not be open to…”

resistance to alternative analysis

  • differing views done for political reasons, based on political views
    • shopping for desirec outcomes
  • resource issue
    • only so many analysts – devil’s advocate still need to be experts
  • after a while can lose originality
  • red teams, competetive analysis, alternative analysis
    • all trying to avoid pitfalls in analysis (groupthink etc)

ORCON – key term

types of CI orgs, 3 types key

  1. external
  2. internal/domestic
  3. unitary


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