PLS 487-01

QUIZ NEXT WEEK!

***multiple handouts***

Paper: choose Intel “disaster” post-WWII

  • broadly defined

review questions:

  • according to Lowenthal, as a rule of thumb how much of the IC does SECDEF control %
  • what is the difference betw. “distance” and “proximate” school of thought for consumer-producer relations
  • what are some of the weakness of intelligence as perceived by policymakers
    • can miss the obvious
    • can be dismissed
  • what makes intel different from other govt functions

review terms

  • key terms
    • groupthink
    • mirror imaging
    • intelligence error (missing data leads to incorrect assumptions)
    • intel failure (systematic breakdown)

started with Washington

  • G.W.
    • honed skills during F-I War
    • lessons learned victory & defeat
  • during Rev. War, spent more than 10% of his funds on intel
    • first Am. MILINT org
  • John Jay
    • father of Am. COINTEL
    • critical in establishing right of Ex. branch to conduct intel actions in secret

Impact of WWII

  • prior, most intel work left to State, armed svc
    • context of foreign policy
    • FBI: law enforcement function
  • 1940 “primitive & inadequate”
  • FDR creates COI (Coordinator of Intel)
    • first peacetime, non-departmental intel org
    • purposely duplicates other orgs. functions

Gen. “Wild Bill” Donovan

  • Ivy League
  • WWI hero, well-traveled
  • practicing lawyer, former asst atty gen
  • candidate for governor
  • takes on COI 1941
  • impact of Pearl Harbor: COI grew

COI to OSS

  • who did Donovan recruit?
    • people like him
    • British influence
  • COI “steps on toes”
    • COI brought under JCS
    • becomes OSS
      • no “White Propaganda” mission
      • OSS no access to Axis intercepts
      • no domestic CI role
  • develops, expnads into more full-fledged operations abroad

OSS cont’d

  • in 1944-45, OSS
    • employed 13k
    • spend $43mln, 4yr total $135mln
  • other impacts include strategic research and analysis (R&A)
    • Special Operations Branch
      • use of ethnic US communities in WWII
    • espionage efforts abroad
  • OSS dissolved end of WWII
    • broken up betw Stat, mil

US IC infocus

  • Dr. Rob Juhnston stufy
  • “A secret state or group activity to understand or influence foreign and/or domestic entities”
  • “Intelligence Analysis is the application of indiv. and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context.”

Key findings

  • secrecy v. efficacy
    • inherently conflict
    • compartmentalization
  • time constraints
    • in context, relates to analysis but broader
    • current v. longterm requirements
  • rewards, incentives
  • tradecraft v. scientfic methodology
  • bias, norms, taboos

Error v. failure

  • error: factual a=inaccuracies in analysis resulting from poor/missing data
  • failure: systematic organizational surprise resulting from incorrect, missing, discarded, or inadequate hypotheses
  • “there is no such thing. only policy failure”

to work in intel:

  1. get as high a clearance as possible
  2. DC internships
  3. language good but not required
  4. M.A. makes you competitive with mil preference points

the US IC

  • org chart (Lowenthal fig 3.1)

Missile wars

  • What were the political dynamics of the country at the time and how did it affect the issue
  • In what ways did politics impact the intelligence community assessments
  • Would you consider this a case of politicized intel
  • Were there any examples of relationships that matterered
  • Name two things that surprised you abt movie, why

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