PLS 471-B01

What changes Bush policy?

Bush SOTU Address Jan 2002

  • “Axis of Evil”
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • DPRK
  • what is the connection?
  • support for terrorism
  • WMD
  • target=Iraq

“I’ve made up my mind that Saddam needs to go.” — GWB Apr 4 2002

UN Sideshow

UNSC Res. 1441 Nov 2002

  • Iraq must accept inspectors (UNMOVIC)
  • any material breach = “serious consequences”
  • who decides?
  • last chance for Saddam?

The case against Iraq

  • Saddam: bad guy
  • terrorist links
  • WMD
  • = 9-11 squared

on the eve of war, 50%+ of Americans believed Saddam was involved in 9-11

the WMD question: why important?

  • justification given to the world
  • heart of the case for war
  • Iraq seen as threat to US
  • imminent threat
  • cannot be delayed
  • justified pre-emptive strike
  • “mushroom cloud” image
  • so where are they??

Did the Bush administration lie, or was it an honest mistake?

case for the defense

  • why lie?
  • will be found out
  • info from defectors
  • supplied by Ahmed Chalabi
  • administration conned

case for the prosecution

probably

  • Bush admin wanted war
  • WMD=threat
  • easy to understand
  • easiest case to make
  • case not “fair and balanced”
  • presented one side
  • careful not to lie
  • all administrations do this!

Where were democrats?

the deeper reason

why does the Arab world “hate” the US

  • support for IL
  • sanctions on IQ (1991-2003)
  • US troops on “holy” ground of SA
  • US props up dictators
  • results in 9-11

the plan

  • overthrow Saddam
  • demonstrate US power
  • “shock and awe”
  • warning to other states in region
  • Iraqis would welcome US as “liberators”
  • offer permanent bases
  • shift troops out of SA into IQ
  • west gets oil from IQ
  • can control oil prices
  • use oil money to rebuild
  • democracy
  • democracy in IQ lead to same in IR
  • democracy and prosperity spreads through region
  • happily ever after

plan totally restructring the Middle East: “extending the zone of the democratic peace” NSS 2002

advantages

  • resolves the “paper tiger” problem
  • troops off “holy” ground
  • sanctions on IQ end
  • pressure off IL
  • addresses root causes of terrorism
    • repression
    • poverty

beauty of the plan

  • something for everyone
  • for realists & conservatives
    • remove a threat
    • display of power
    • bases in IQ
    • control of oil
  • for liberals
    • take out a bad guy
    • democracy for Middle East

problems

  • does anyone believe it?
  • can it be done?
  • changes definition of success
  • before, success = disarm IQ & regime change
  • after, success = democratic IQ

Troop numbers

government in exile

  • idea: government of exiles
  • ready to transplant after the war
  • hit the ground running
  • Iraqi face
  • who?
  • Chalabi (head of INC)

the plan

  • fly Chalabi & militia into IQ during war
  • generate uprising among Shi’a
  • join with US
  • overthrow regime
  • Afghanistan: the sequel
  • INC forms core of new govt
  • the Leadership Council

problems

  • created power vacuum in cities
  • no law & order
  • regime disintegrates
  • reaction of Iraqi people?
  • most did not resist
  • did not join in
  • window of opportunity

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