PLS 470-B01

1991 Gulf War (a messy end)

* Video
o Kurdish rebellion could take the whole country in shape

In the North

* UNSCR 688 (April 1991)
* Condemns “repression of Iraqi population”
* Demands an end
* No enforcement
* US +UK create “safe havens”
* No-fly zone established
* Saddam initiates blockade (October 1991)
* Kurds have their own state!

The Kurds survive

* Protected by US + UK (and France) air power
* + own armed forces(Peshmerga)
* Saddam does not dare to attack
* Supported by aid (via UN)
* 1992 elections held and formed Government
* Kurdish democracy born (north)

The rest of Iraq

* Did not make out so well
* UNSCR 661 (1990)
* Total sanctions against Iraq
* UNSCR 678 (April 1991)
* “the mother of all resolutions”
o Ceasefire terms between UN and Iraq
o Iraq must…
+ Destroy all chem./bio/nuke/weapons/facilities/programs
+ + missile of range >100 miles
+ UNSCOM inspects
+ Compensation to Kuwait
+ Iraq still paying
+ Our tax dollars à going to IraqàKuwait
+ Sanctions stay in place until Iraq is certified WMD-free
o UN =get rid of WMD sanctions go but US and Brits wants the regime out
o The problem
+ UNSCR 687 says
+ Lose WMD=sanctions lifted
+ US saysàregime change =sanctions lifted
+ Why would Saddam disarm?
+ The message was designed to motivate people to overthrow Saddam
+ What he have to gain?
+ Guarantees noncooperation

Family problems: Hussein Kamel

*** ARRIVED LATE, ABOVE NOTES EMAILED ***

Clinton administration policy

  • “Containment”
  • regime change lite
  • CIA coup attempt 1995
  • assassination attempt 1998

UNSCOM Ends

  • spying accusations
  • Saddam boots UNSCOM out
  • Operation Desert Fox (Dec 1998)
  • no inspections post-1998

What do we know for certain?

  • IQ had BC weapons
  • worked on N program
  • systematic program of concealment
  • UNSCOM got 95% of it

Sanctions

  • most severe in history
  • 1990-96
  • almost no $$ into IQ
  • oil smuggling (TR & JO)
  • disaster for people
  • 1991 UN offers “oil for food” deal
  • Saddam refused

UNSCR 986 (Apr 1995)

  • new “oil for food” offer
  • $2 bill. oil exports every 6 mos
  • $$ for essential civilian needs
  • Saddam accepts
  • allows food and some medical goods
  • placed “holds” on “dual-use” goods
    • chlorine
    • pencils

problems w/ oil for food

  • does prevent starvation
  • but regime controlled food distribution
  • big carrot/stick
  • strengthened regime
  • IQ cannot rebuild infrastructure
  • not enough $$
  • materials are dual-use

the effects of sanctions

  • regime stronger
  • US/UK = bad guys
  • UN estimate
    • 1.5 million Iraqis die
    • 500k children
  • propaganda gift to Saddam

Bin laden declared Jihad (1998)

cost of sanctions

  • Iraq’s middle class wiped out
  • infrastructure destroyed
  • US tax $$ now pay
  • hostility toward US & UK
  • hatred of UN

was it worth it?

  • Saddam contained
  • 95% of WMD destroyed
  • terrible cost to IQ
    • we are now paying

Saddam’s survival

  • becomes strategic Muslim
  • talks to god
  • controls food distribution
  • illegal income (smuggling)
  • oil for food
    • TR & JO
  • pays off supporters
  • relies only on family
    • sons Uday & Qusay
  • new institutions

Special Republican Guard

  • formed 1992-3
  • 30k strong
  • to protect against coup by “regular” Republican Guard
  • stationed in Baghdad
  • fiercly loyal
  • recruited from poor areas around Tikrit
  • led by Qusay

Saddam’s Fedayeen (men of sacrifice)

  • formed 1995
  • 30-40k
  • led by Uday
  • militia force
  • used to terrorize streets
  • instant beheadings
  • suicide squadron
  • 4-5k?

Saddam’s Lion Cubs (Ashbal Saddam)

  • formed 1998
  • 18k
  • feeder group for Fedayeen
  • ages 9-18
  • trained in weapons
  • indoctrinated
  • loyalty test

personality cult reaches epic proportions

Music video: Saddam Our Father

Uncle Saddam: the view from IQ 2000

By 2000

  • Saddam secure
  • regime more brutal
  • sanctions hurting people but not regime
  • sanctions regime crumbling
  • US looks weak
  • terrible PR problem
  • good luck George Bush

Bush approach

  • Saddam contained
  • not a threat
  • no nation building
  • 2002 Powell tried “smart sanctions”
  • gets nowhere

had the policy continued

  • sanctions break down
  • Saddam still in power
  • serious resources
  • probably seek WMD
  • Saddam would die
  • then what?
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